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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Gina Jones vs Tony Gonzales

← Texas houseTexas house →
Likely RR +6.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
13% Jones (D)
87% Gonzales (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +6.8 · 80% CI R+18.8 → D+5.2
Actual result R+4.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 87% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.8 (10th pctile) to D+5.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 87% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.8
80% CI: R +18.8 → D +5.2 · win prob 13%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTony Gonzales0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DGina Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBeto Villela0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-21
Gina JonesH8TX23121 ↗
Receipts
$6.9M
Disburse
$7.0M
Cash on hand
$4.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tony GonzalesH0TX35015 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$31.4K
Debts
$40.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$37.9M
D side
$19.2M · 51%
R side
$18.7M · 49%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Jones $1.8M
Against Gonzales $17.4M
Against Jones $18.3M
For Gonzales $391.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$17.4M46%against Gina Jones
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$16.6M44%against Tony Gonzales
VALOR AMERICAR$848.2K2%against Gina Jones
DCCCD$603.6K2%for Gina Jones
WOMEN VOTE!D$421.4K1%for Gina Jones
L PACD$400.0K1%for Gina Jones
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$300.0K1%against Tony Gonzales
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$175.8K0%against Tony Gonzales
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PACR$150.0K0%for Tony Gonzales

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks