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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Sri Preston Kulkarni vs Troy Nehls

← Texas houseTexas house →
Likely RR +9.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
5% Kulkarni (D)
95% Nehls (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.8 · 80% CI R+21.8 → D+2.2
Actual result R+6.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 95% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.8 (10th pctile) to D+2.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.8
80% CI: R +21.8 → D +2.2 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTroy Nehls0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSri Preston Kulkarni0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJoseph LeBlanc0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Troy NehlsH0TX22302 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$24.8K
Debts
$4.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sri Preston KulkarniH8TX22313 ↗
Receipts
$5.8M
Disburse
$5.8M
Cash on hand
$36.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$45.9M
D side
$33.0M · 72%
R side
$12.9M · 28%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Kulkarni $428.6K
Against Nehls $32.6M
Against Kulkarni $10.4M
For Nehls $2.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$25.1M55%against Troy Nehls
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$11.4M25%against Sri Preston Kulkarni
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$4.6M10%against Troy Nehls
DCCCD$2.9M6%against Troy Nehls
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$1.2M3%against Sri Preston Kulkarni
THE SOUTHERN STRATEGYD$260.0K1%for Sri Preston Kulkarni
TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$158.6K0%for Sri Preston Kulkarni
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PACR$81.0K0%for Troy Nehls
FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICAR$45.0K0%against Sri Preston Kulkarni

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks