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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Wendy Davis vs Chip Roy

← Texas houseTexas house →
Likely RR +14.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Davis (D)
99% Roy (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +14.8 · 80% CI R+26.8 → R+2.8
Actual result R+6.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.8 (10th pctile) to R+2.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.8
80% CI: R +26.8 → R +2.8 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RChip Roy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DWendy Davis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Chip RoyH8TX21307 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$4.8M
Cash on hand
$463.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Wendy DavisH0TX21148 ↗
Receipts
$10.4M
Disburse
$10.4M
Cash on hand
$61.6K
Debts
$258.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$17.6M
D side
$9.3M · 53%
R side
$8.3M · 47%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Davis $355.8K
Against Roy $9.0M
Against Davis $5.9M
For Roy $2.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$7.5M42%against Chip Roy
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$2.6M15%against Wendy Davis
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$2.0M11%for Chip Roy
WOMEN VOTE!D$1.1M6%against Chip Roy
VALOR AMERICAR$1.0M6%against Wendy Davis
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$975.4K6%against Wendy Davis
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$650.0K4%for Chip Roy
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$448.9K3%against Chip Roy
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$250.0K1%against Wendy Davis

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks