Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat
Sima Ladjevardian vs Dan Crenshaw
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.5 (10th pctile) to R+9.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.5
80% CI: R +33.5 → R +9.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+12.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRDan Crenshaw0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSima Ladjevardian0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LElliott Scheirman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23Dan CrenshawH8TX02166 ↗
Receipts
$19.5M
Disburse
$17.7M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sima LadjevardianH0TX02106 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$7.4K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Elliott Scheirman
Receipts
$15.4K
Disburse
$14.3K
Cash on hand
$-941.96
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.1M
D side
$720.9K · 66%
R side
$373.6K · 34%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $447.5K | 41% | against Dan Crenshaw |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $199.9K | 18% | for Dan Crenshaw |
| CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC. pac · boosts R
| R | $153.4K | 14% | for Dan Crenshaw |
| TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $112.3K | 10% | for Sima Ladjevardian |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $92.3K | 8% | against Dan Crenshaw |
| EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND) super pac · boosts D
| D | $36.0K | 3% | against Dan Crenshaw |
| 1199 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT'L UNION FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $20.3K | 2% | for Sima Ladjevardian |
| CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $10.4K | 1% | for Sima Ladjevardian |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $237.21 | 0% | for Sima Ladjevardian |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 24
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
The Cook Political Report
Likely RFiveThirtyEight
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks