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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Mike Siegel vs Michael McCaul

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +17.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Siegel (D)
99% McCaul (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.5 · 80% CI R+29.5 → R+5.5
Actual result R+7.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.5 (10th pctile) to R+5.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.5
80% CI: R +29.5 → R +5.5 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+7.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMichael McCaul0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Siegel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LRoy Eriksen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Michael McCaulH4TX10093 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$7.7K
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mike SiegelH0TX10208 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$369.3K
D side
$200.6K · 54%
R side
$168.7K · 46%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
For / against split
For Siegel $20.1K
Against McCaul $180.5K
For McCaul $168.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$100.0K27%for Michael McCaul
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$86.7K23%against Michael McCaul
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDR$48.4K13%for Michael McCaul
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$36.0K10%against Michael McCaul
314 ACTION FUNDD$25.0K7%against Michael McCaul
NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATIOND$15.6K4%for Mike Siegel
WORKERS DEFENSE ACTION FUNDD$2.7K1%for Mike Siegel
ROSEDALE HUDDLED$1.8K0%for Mike Siegel
GREENPEACE, INC.D$21.660%for Mike Siegel

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks