NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Mary Gay Scanlon vs Dasha Pruett

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe DD +43.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Scanlon (D)
1% Pruett (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +43.1 · 80% CI D+31.1 → D+55.1
Actual result D+29.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+43.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+31.1 (10th pctile) to D+55.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +43.1
80% CI: D +31.1 → D +55.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+29.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMary Gay Scanlon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDasha Pruett0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Mary Gay ScanlonH8PA07200 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$218.7K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dasha PruettH0PA05094 ↗
Receipts
$108.4K
Disburse
$85.7K
Cash on hand
$22.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$28.0K
D side
$27.7K · 99%
R side
$319.43 · 1%
Top spender
COMMONWEALTH COMMUN…
For / against split
For Scanlon $27.6K
Against Pruett $115.05
Against Scanlon $159.71
For Pruett $159.72
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
COMMONWEALTH COMMUNICATIONSD$22.0K79%for Mary Gay Scanlon
BEND THE ARC JEWISH ACTION INCD$3.3K12%for Mary Gay Scanlon
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7503%for Mary Gay Scanlon
JDCA PACD$538.962%for Mary Gay Scanlon
INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS LOCAL 98 COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATIOND$398.531%for Mary Gay Scanlon
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PACR$159.721%for Dasha Pruett
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Dasha Pruett

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks