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Races · house · 2020 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Mike Doyle vs Luke Negron

← Pennsylvania houseRhode Island house →
Likely DD +10.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
97% Doyle (D)
3% Negron (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.9 · 80% CI R+1.1 → D+22.9
Actual result D+38.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+22.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.9
80% CI: R +1.1 → D +22.9 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+38.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMike Doyle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLuke Negron0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-31
Mike DoyleH4PA18131 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$265.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Luke NegronH0PA18113 ↗
Receipts
$64.9K
Disburse
$58.8K
Cash on hand
$6.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$20.6K
D side
$20.3K · 98%
R side
$319.44 · 2%
Top spender
COMMONWEALTH COMMUN…
For / against split
For Doyle $20.3K
Against Doyle $159.71
For Negron $159.73
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
COMMONWEALTH COMMUNICATIONSD$19.5K95%for Mike Doyle
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7504%for Mike Doyle
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PACR$319.442%for Luke Negron
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Mike Doyle

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 25
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks