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Races · house · 2020 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Conor Lamb vs Sean Parnell

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe DD +19.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Lamb (D)
1% Parnell (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +19.0 · 80% CI D+7.0 → D+31.0
Actual result D+2.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+31.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.0
80% CI: D +7.0 → D +31.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DConor Lamb0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSean Parnell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Sean ParnellH0PA17115 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$203.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Conor LambH8PA18181 ↗
Receipts
$4.1M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$833.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.1M
D side
$1.6M · 78%
R side
$445.8K · 22%
Top spender
VOTEVETS
For / against split
For Lamb $565.1K
Against Parnell $1.1M
Against Lamb $153.2K
For Parnell $292.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
VOTEVETSD$1.1M51%against Sean Parnell
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.D$514.3K25%for Conor Lamb
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$148.8K7%against Conor Lamb
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PACR$118.5K6%for Sean Parnell
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$82.3K4%for Sean Parnell
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$46.6K2%for Sean Parnell
CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PACR$33.5K2%for Sean Parnell
COMMONWEALTH COMMUNICATIONSD$22.0K1%for Conor Lamb
FOR OUR FUTURED$11.0K1%for Conor Lamb

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks