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Races · house · 2020 · Pennsylvania
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Eugene DePasquale vs Scott Perry

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Likely RR +9.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% DePasquale (D)
94% Perry (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.5 · 80% CI R+21.5 → D+2.5
Actual result R+6.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.5 (10th pctile) to D+2.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.5
80% CI: R +21.5 → D +2.5 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RScott Perry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEugene DePasquale0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Scott PerryH2PA04135 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$169.2K
Debts
$28.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Eugene DePasqualeH0PA10110 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$4.5M
Cash on hand
$7.9K
Debts
$143.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$32.2M
D side
$16.5M · 51%
R side
$15.8M · 49%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For DePasquale $1.2M
Against Perry $15.2M
Against DePasquale $13.8M
For Perry $2.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$13.5M42%against Scott Perry
NRCCR$9.2M29%against Eugene DePasquale
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.6M8%against Eugene DePasquale
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$2.0M6%for Scott Perry
DCCCD$1.6M5%against Scott Perry
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$655.6K2%against Eugene DePasquale
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L ED$338.8K1%for Eugene DePasquale
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$295.0K1%for Scott Perry
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$237.3K1%for Scott Perry

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks