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Races · house · 2020 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Debbie Waschspress vs Brian Fitzpatrick

← Oregon housePennsylvania house →
Tilt DD +1.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
59% Waschspress (D)
41% Fitzpatrick (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +1.3 · 80% CI R+10.7 → D+13.3
Actual result R+13.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 59% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.7 (10th pctile) to D+13.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 59% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.3
80% CI: R +10.7 → D +13.3 · win prob 59%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBrian Fitzpatrick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDebbie Waschspress0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-05
Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$48.3K
Debts
$24.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$16.0M
D side
$13.2M · 83%
R side
$2.8M · 17%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
Against Fitzpatrick $13.2M
For Fitzpatrick $2.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$13.2M82%against Brian Fitzpatrick
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.R$1.4M8%for Brian Fitzpatrick
EDF ACTION VOTESR$371.9K2%for Brian Fitzpatrick
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$365.7K2%for Brian Fitzpatrick
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF OB-GYNS PAC (OB-GYN PAC)R$239.9K1%for Brian Fitzpatrick

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Lean R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks