Races · house · 2020 · Oregon
house · open seat
Peter DeFazio vs Alek Skarlatos
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+23.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.9 (10th pctile) to D+35.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +23.9
80% CI: D +11.9 → D +35.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+5.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetDPeter DeFazio0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAlek Skarlatos0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GDaniel Hoffay0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23Alek SkarlatosH0OR04107 ↗
Receipts
$5.5M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$123.4K
Debts
$20.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Peter DeFazioH6OR04047 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$5.9M
Cash on hand
$517.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.3M
D side
$5.8M · 92%
R side
$494.7K · 8%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.5M | 71% | against Alek Skarlatos |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $449.0K | 7% | against Alek Skarlatos |
| VOTER PROTECTION PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $400.1K | 6% | against Alek Skarlatos |
| NRDC ACTION VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $293.4K | 5% | for Peter DeFazio |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $273.8K | 4% | against Peter DeFazio |
| SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $90.0K | 1% | for Alek Skarlatos |
| AMERICAN JOBS AND GROWTH PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $70.0K | 1% | against Peter DeFazio |
| THE PRINCIPLES PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $63.3K | 1% | for Peter DeFazio |
| INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SHEET METAL, AIR, RAIL AND TRANSPORTATION WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION LEAGUE pac · boosts D
| D | $50.0K | 1% | for Peter DeFazio |
| RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $20.2K | 0% | for Alek Skarlatos |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Sep 30
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 14
The Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks