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Races · house · 2020 · Oklahoma
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Kendra Horn vs Stephanie Bice

← Oklahoma houseOregon house →
Likely DD +13.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Horn (D)
1% Bice (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +13.6 · 80% CI D+1.6 → D+25.6
Actual result R+4.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.6 (10th pctile) to D+25.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.6
80% CI: D +1.6 → D +25.6 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DKendra Horn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RStephanie Bice0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LRichie Castaldo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Stephanie BiceH0OK05205 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$211.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kendra HornH8OK05109 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$6.0M
Cash on hand
$103.1K
Debts
$17.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$42.6M
D side
$24.7M · 58%
R side
$17.9M · 42%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Horn $126.3K
Against Bice $24.6M
Against Horn $16.3M
For Bice $1.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$12.4M29%against Stephanie Bice
DCCCD$7.7M18%against Stephanie Bice
NRCCR$7.0M16%against Kendra Horn
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$6.0M14%against Kendra Horn
WOMEN VOTE!D$4.2M10%against Stephanie Bice
CITIZENS FOR FREE ENTERPRISER$3.7M9%against Kendra Horn
RESTORE OKLAHOMAR$534.1K1%against Kendra Horn
AFT SOLIDARITYD$400.7K1%against Stephanie Bice

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Sep 10
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks