NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Ohio
house · open seat

Desiree Tims vs Mike Turner

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Likely RR +14.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Tims (D)
99% Turner (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +14.1 · 80% CI R+26.1 → R+2.1
Actual result R+16.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.1 (10th pctile) to R+2.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.1
80% CI: R +26.1 → R +2.1 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Turner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDesiree Tims0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Desiree TimsH0OH10116 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$16.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mike TurnerH2OH03067 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$77.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$58.7K
D side
$54.7K · 93%
R side
$3.9K · 7%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK…
For / against split
For Tims $54.6K
Against Turner $115.05
For Turner $3.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$29.9K51%for Desiree Tims
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$17.7K30%for Desiree Tims
RED WINE AND BLUED$5.9K10%for Desiree Tims
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$3.9K7%for Mike Turner
OHIO WOMENS ALLIANCE ACTION FUNDD$774.361%for Desiree Tims
JDCA PACD$220.830%for Desiree Tims
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Mike Turner

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R3
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Likely R
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jul 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks