NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Ohio
house · open seat

Kate Schroder vs Steve Chabot

← New York houseOhio house →
Lean DD +3.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
71% Schroder (D)
29% Chabot (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.3 · 80% CI R+8.7 → D+15.3
Actual result R+7.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 71% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.7 (10th pctile) to D+15.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 71% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.3
80% CI: R +8.7 → D +15.3 · win prob 71%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+7.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSteve Chabot0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKate Schroder0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Steve ChabotH8OH01043 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$34.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kate SchroderH0OH01099 ↗
Receipts
$4.1M
Disburse
$4.1M
Cash on hand
$504.95
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$21.8M
D side
$15.1M · 69%
R side
$6.8M · 31%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Schroder $54.3K
Against Chabot $15.0M
Against Schroder $6.0M
For Chabot $772.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$7.3M33%against Steve Chabot
DCCCD$6.4M30%against Steve Chabot
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.9M18%against Kate Schroder
NRCCR$1.6M7%against Kate Schroder
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$986.4K5%for Steve Chabot
WOMEN VOTE!D$700.8K3%against Steve Chabot
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$572.5K3%against Steve Chabot
RED WINE AND BLUED$28.0K0%for Kate Schroder
PROTECT THE VOTED$7.8K0%for Kate Schroder

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks