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Races · house · 2020 · New York
house · open seat

Tedra Cobb vs Elise Stefanik

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe RR +20.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Cobb (D)
99% Stefanik (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +20.6 · 80% CI R+32.6 → R+8.6
Actual result R+14.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.6 (10th pctile) to R+8.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.6
80% CI: R +32.6 → R +8.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+14.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RElise Stefanik0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTedra Cobb0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Elise StefanikH4NY21079 ↗
Receipts
$13.3M
Disburse
$11.7M
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tedra CobbH8NY21245 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$5.7M
Cash on hand
$32.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$192.5K
D side
$11.5K · 6%
R side
$181.0K · 94%
Top spender
CITIZENS FOR RESPON…
For / against split
For Cobb $1.1K
Against Stefanik $10.4K
Against Cobb $10.8K
For Stefanik $170.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC.R$150.7K78%for Elise Stefanik
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$17.0K9%for Elise Stefanik
NORTH COUNTRY PACR$10.8K6%against Tedra Cobb
PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAYD$10.0K5%against Elise Stefanik
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$1.9K1%for Elise Stefanik
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$468.750%for Elise Stefanik
DEMOCRATIC GROUPD$438.490%for Tedra Cobb
INDIVISIBLE ACTIOND$379.240%for Tedra Cobb
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$142.320%for Tedra Cobb
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%for Tedra Cobb

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks