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Races · house · 2020 · New York
house · open seat

Jackie Gordon vs Andrew Garbarino

← New York houseNew York house →
Lean RR +4.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
23% Gordon (D)
77% Garbarino (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +4.4 · 80% CI R+16.4 → D+7.6
Actual result R+4.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 77% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.4 (10th pctile) to D+7.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 77% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.4
80% CI: R +16.4 → D +7.6 · win prob 23%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAndrew Garbarino0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJackie Gordon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GHarry Burger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Andrew GarbarinoH0NY02234 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$131.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jackie GordonH0NY02192 ↗
Receipts
$4.4M
Disburse
$4.4M
Cash on hand
$17.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Harry BurgerOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$2.4K
Disburse
$594.04
Cash on hand
$1.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$31.5M
D side
$24.1M · 77%
R side
$7.3M · 23%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Gordon $5.3M
Against Garbarino $18.8M
Against Gordon $7.0M
For Garbarino $383.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$10.4M33%against Andrew Garbarino
DCCCD$7.9M25%for Jackie Gordon
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.4M11%against Jackie Gordon
NRCCR$3.2M10%against Jackie Gordon
WOMEN VOTE!D$953.6K3%against Andrew Garbarino
VOTEVETSD$953.6K3%against Andrew Garbarino
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$783.8K2%against Andrew Garbarino
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$444.6K1%for Jackie Gordon

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Sep 28
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks