Races · house · 2020 · New York
house · open seat
Antonio Delgado vs Kyle Van De Water
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+3.2 (10th pctile) to D+27.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +15.2
80% CI: D +3.2 → D +27.2 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+4.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetDAntonio Delgado0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKyle Van De Water0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LVictoria Alexander0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GSteve Greenfield0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Antonio DelgadoH8NY19181 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$3.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Steve GreenfieldH2NY22097 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kyle Van De WaterH0NY19204 ↗
Receipts
$154.8K
Disburse
$121.1K
Cash on hand
$33.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$13.6K
D side
$9.2K · 68%
R side
$4.4K · 32%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $8.2K | 61% | for Antonio Delgado |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.4K | 32% | against Antonio Delgado |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts D
| D | $750 | 6% | for Antonio Delgado |
| OWLS FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| G | $390.4 | 3% | for Steve Greenfield |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $230.1 | 2% | for Antonio Delgado |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Antonio Delgado |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 28
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks