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Races · house · 2020 · New York
house · open seat

Mondaire Jones vs Maureen McArdle Schulman

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe DD +25.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Jones (D)
1% Schulman (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +25.7 · 80% CI D+13.7 → D+37.7
Actual result D+20.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+37.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +25.7
80% CI: D +13.7 → D +37.7 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+20.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMondaire Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMaureen McArdle Schulman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IYehudis Gottesfeld0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Mondaire JonesH0NY17174 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$797.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Maureen McArdle SchulmanH0NY17315 ↗
Receipts
$54.7K
Disburse
$60.1K
Cash on hand
$-5,326.74
Debts
$4.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Yehudis GottesfeldOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$36.9K
Disburse
$36.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.1M
D side
$1.1M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
EQUALITY PAC
For / against split
For Jones $1.1M
Against Schulman $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
EQUALITY PACD$420.0K38%for Mondaire Jones
CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PACD$222.1K20%for Mondaire Jones
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$173.9K16%for Mondaire Jones
THE COLLECTIVE PACD$100.0K9%for Mondaire Jones
FIGHT FOR THE AMERICAN DREAM PACD$91.0K8%for Mondaire Jones
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Maureen McArdle Schulman

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks