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Races · house · 2020 · New York
house · open seat

Max Rose vs Nicole Malliotakis

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe DD +18.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Rose (D)
1% Malliotakis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +18.4 · 80% CI D+6.5 → D+30.4
Actual result R+3.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.5 (10th pctile) to D+30.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.4
80% CI: D +6.5 → D +30.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMax Rose0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNicole Malliotakis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Nicole MalliotakisH0NY11078 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$22.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Max RoseH8NY11113 ↗
Receipts
$9.3M
Disburse
$9.5M
Cash on hand
$23.2K
Debts
$76.21
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$51.2M
D side
$39.6M · 77%
R side
$11.5M · 23%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Rose $8.2M
Against Malliotakis $31.4M
Against Rose $11.0M
For Malliotakis $517.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$23.6M46%against Nicole Malliotakis
DCCCD$9.1M18%against Nicole Malliotakis
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$7.3M14%against Max Rose
NRCCR$3.3M6%against Max Rose
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$2.2M4%against Nicole Malliotakis
VOTEVETSD$1.5M3%against Nicole Malliotakis
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.D$979.9K2%for Max Rose
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$921.3K2%against Nicole Malliotakis
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$390.2K1%against Max Rose

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Aug 20
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks