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Races · house · 2020 · Nevada
house · open seat

Patricia Ackerman vs Mark Amodei

← Nevada houseNevada house →
Likely RR +14.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Ackerman (D)
99% Amodei (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +14.6 · 80% CI R+26.6 → R+2.6
Actual result R+15.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.6 (10th pctile) to R+2.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.6
80% CI: R +26.6 → R +2.6 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+15.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMark Amodei0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPatricia Ackerman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJanine Hansen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-24
Patricia AckermanH0NV02209 ↗
Receipts
$460.8K
Disburse
$460.9K
Cash on hand
$43.81
Debts
$6.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mark AmodeiH2NV02395 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$324.3K
Debts
$9.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$100.6K
D side
$100.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
FOR OUR FUTURE
For / against split
For Ackerman $89.3K
Against Amodei $11.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FOR OUR FUTURED$44.6K44%for Patricia Ackerman
WIN JUSTICED$38.0K38%for Patricia Ackerman
NEW BEGINNINGS PACD$9.0K9%for Patricia Ackerman
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$3.6K4%for Patricia Ackerman
SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION POLITICAL EDUCATION AND ACTION FUNDD$3.5K3%for Patricia Ackerman
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACD$141.230%against Mark Amodei

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-24
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks