Races · house · 2020 · New Mexico

house · open seat

Xochitl Torres Small vs The Tarrance Group

← New Mexico house New Mexico house →

Likely DD +14.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Small (D)
1% Group (R)
Win probability
Xochitl Torres Small99% (D)
The Tarrance Group1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +14.4
80% CID+2.4 → D+26.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +14.4 · 80% CI D+2.4 → D+26.4
Actual result R+7.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.4 (10th pctile) to D+26.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +14.4

80% CI: D +2.4 → D +26.4 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+7.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RThe Tarrance Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DXochitl Torres Small0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-09

Xochitl Torres SmallH8NM02248 ↗

Receipts

$8.5M

Disburse

$8.6M

Cash on hand

$16.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$18.9M

D side

$17.9M · 95%

R side

$1.0M · 5%

Top spender

LATINO VICTORY FUND

For / against split

For Small $135.5K

Against Herrell $17.8M

For Herrell $1.0M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
LATINO VICTORY FUND	D	$70.7K	0%	for Xochitl Torres Small
SOMOS ACCION	D	$54.5K	0%	for Xochitl Torres Small
NM NATIVE VOTE, AUSTIN R	D	$5.3K	0%	for Xochitl Torres Small
JDCA PAC	D	$3.8K	0%	for Xochitl Torres Small
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	D	$965	0%	for Xochitl Torres Small

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tossup2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Tossup

Oct 15

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-09

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks