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Races · house · 2020 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Tom Malinowski vs Thomas Kean Jr.

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Likely DD +13.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Malinowski (D)
1% Jr. (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +13.7 · 80% CI D+1.7 → D+25.7
Actual result D+1.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.7 (10th pctile) to D+25.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.7
80% CI: D +1.7 → D +25.7 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+1.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTom Malinowski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RThomas Kean Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Thomas Kean Jr.H0NJ07261 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$93.7K
Debts
$6.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tom MalinowskiH8NJ07223 ↗
Receipts
$7.5M
Disburse
$7.5M
Cash on hand
$51.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$22.9M
D side
$12.5M · 55%
R side
$10.4M · 45%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Malinowski $81.7K
Against Jr. $12.4M
Against Malinowski $9.8M
For Jr. $593.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$9.0M39%against Thomas Kean Jr.
NRCCR$6.7M29%against Tom Malinowski
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.1M14%against Tom Malinowski
DCCCD$2.5M11%against Thomas Kean Jr.
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$907.5K4%against Thomas Kean Jr.
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$280.0K1%for Thomas Kean Jr.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$121.9K1%for Thomas Kean Jr.
ACTION TOGETHER PACD$55.8K0%for Tom Malinowski
JDCA PACD$9.0K0%for Tom Malinowski
MAKE THE ROAD ACTION INC.D$8.0K0%for Tom Malinowski

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D2
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Likely D
Oct 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks