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Races · house · 2020 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Andy Kim vs David Richter

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Safe DD +20.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kim (D)
1% Richter (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.8 · 80% CI D+8.8 → D+32.8
Actual result D+7.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.8 (10th pctile) to D+32.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.8
80% CI: D +8.8 → D +32.8 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+7.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAndy Kim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDavid Richter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-10
David RichterH0NJ02155 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$3.0K
Debts
$266.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Andy KimH8NJ03206 ↗
Receipts
$7.4M
Disburse
$6.9M
Cash on hand
$551.8K
Debts
$6.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$15.4M
D side
$14.3M · 93%
R side
$1.1M · 7%
Top spender
DCCC
For / against split
For Kim $224.2K
Against Richter $14.1M
Against Kim $1.0M
For Richter $77.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DCCCD$10.9M71%against David Richter
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$2.2M14%against David Richter
RJC VICTORY FUNDR$955.2K6%against Andy Kim
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$946.6K6%against David Richter
CULAC THE PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATIOND$171.5K1%for Andy Kim
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$85.8K1%against Andy Kim
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$60.0K0%for David Richter
ACTION TOGETHER PACD$27.9K0%for Andy Kim
AFT SOLIDARITYD$5.0K0%for Andy Kim

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 19

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks