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Races · house · 2020 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Donald Payne Jr. vs Jennifer Zinone

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Safe DD +65.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Jr. (D)
1% Zinone (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +65.7 · 80% CI D+53.7 → D+77.7
Actual result D+69.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+27) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+65.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+53.7 (10th pctile) to D+77.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +65.7
80% CI: D +53.7 → D +77.7 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+69.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDonald Payne Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJennifer Zinone0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IAkil Khalfani0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJohn Mirrione0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Jennifer ZinoneH0NJ10232 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Donald Payne Jr.H2NJ10154 ↗
Receipts
$593.7K
Disburse
$464.8K
Cash on hand
$181.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.8K
D side
$990.1 · 55%
R side
$825.66 · 45%
Top spender
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO…
For / against split
For Jr. $875.05
Against Zinone $115.05
For Zinone $825.66
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PACR$825.6645%for Jennifer Zinone
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75041%for Donald Payne Jr.
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.113%against Jennifer Zinone
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Donald Payne Jr.

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks