NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · New Hampshire
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Annie Kuster vs Steve Negron

← New Hampshire houseNew Jersey house →
Safe DD +19.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kuster (D)
1% Negron (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +19.5 · 80% CI D+7.5 → D+31.5
Actual result D+10.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.5 (10th pctile) to D+31.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.5
80% CI: D +7.5 → D +31.5 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+10.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAnnie Kuster0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSteve Negron0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LAndrew Olding0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Steve NegronH8NH02275 ↗
Receipts
$448.8K
Disburse
$459.5K
Cash on hand
$-3,787.34
Debts
$285.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Annie KusterH0NH02181 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$19.9K
D side
$8.0K · 40%
R side
$11.9K · 60%
Top spender
GUN OWNERS OF AMERI…
For / against split
For Kuster $7.9K
Against Negron $115.05
For Negron $11.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$11.9K60%for Steve Negron
FIREFIGHTERS SUPPORT ASSOCIATION PACD$7.0K35%for Annie Kuster
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7504%for Annie Kuster
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$275.631%for Annie Kuster

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Aug 4
Inside Elections
Safe D
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jul 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks