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Races · house · 2020 · New Hampshire
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Chris Pappas vs Matt Mowers

← Nebraska houseNew Hampshire house →
Safe DD +16.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pappas (D)
1% Mowers (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +16.4 · 80% CI D+4.4 → D+28.4
Actual result D+5.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.4 (10th pctile) to D+28.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.4
80% CI: D +4.4 → D +28.4 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+5.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DChris Pappas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMatt Mowers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Matt MowersH0NH01282 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$8.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris PappasH8NH01210 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$213.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.6M
D side
$92.2K · 6%
R side
$1.5M · 94%
Top spender
NH FREEDOM FUND, INC.
For / against split
For Pappas $48.9K
Against Mowers $43.3K
Against Pappas $160.7K
For Mowers $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NH FREEDOM FUND, INC.R$558.4K36%for Matt Mowers
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$540.9K35%for Matt Mowers
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$300.0K19%for Matt Mowers
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$91.4K6%for Chris Pappas
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$37.9K2%for Matt Mowers
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%for Chris Pappas
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PARTYD$67.790%for Chris Pappas

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D3
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Aug 13
Inside Elections
Likely D
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks