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Races · house · 2020 · Nebraska
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Kara Eastman vs Don Bacon

← Nebraska houseNebraska house →
Lean DD +4.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
76% Eastman (D)
24% Bacon (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +4.2 · 80% CI R+7.8 → D+16.2
Actual result R+4.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 76% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.8 (10th pctile) to D+16.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 76% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.2
80% CI: R +7.8 → D +16.2 · win prob 76%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDon Bacon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKara Eastman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LTyler Schaeffer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Don BaconH6NE02125 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$85.0K
Debts
$82.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kara EastmanH8NE02220 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$4.6M
Cash on hand
$29.2K
Debts
$16.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$16.3M
D side
$13.7M · 84%
R side
$2.6M · 16%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Eastman $2.2M
Against Bacon $11.5M
Against Eastman $348.6K
For Bacon $2.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$7.3M45%against Don Bacon
WOMEN VOTE!D$1.9M12%against Don Bacon
CHANGE CAMPAIGN SUPER PACD$1.5M10%for Kara Eastman
ESAFUNDR$1.2M7%for Don Bacon
DCCCD$973.5K6%against Don Bacon
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$861.7K5%against Don Bacon
NRCCR$284.1K2%against Kara Eastman
WFP IE COMMITTEED$260.0K2%for Kara Eastman
JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PACD$250.0K2%for Kara Eastman
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$64.5K0%against Kara Eastman

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt D1
Tossup1
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 15
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks