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Races · house · 2020 · North Carolina
house · open seat

Cynthia Wallace vs Dan Bishop

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Likely RR +14.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Wallace (D)
99% Bishop (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +14.2 · 80% CI R+26.2 → R+2.2
Actual result R+11.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.2 (10th pctile) to R+2.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.2
80% CI: R +26.2 → R +2.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDan Bishop0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCynthia Wallace0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Cynthia WallaceH0NC09286 ↗
Receipts
$825.7K
Disburse
$808.4K
Cash on hand
$17.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$789.2K
D side
$216.9K · 27%
R side
$572.3K · 73%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
For / against split
For Wallace $216.9K
Against Wallace $572.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$390.3K49%against Cynthia Wallace
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$181.5K23%against Cynthia Wallace
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$148.9K19%for Cynthia Wallace
PROTECTING OUR VOTE PACD$35.4K4%for Cynthia Wallace
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$17.7K2%for Cynthia Wallace

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R2
Likely R1
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 20
538
Lean R
Nov 2
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks