NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · North Carolina
house · open seat

Kathy Manning vs Lee Haywood

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Likely RR +13.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Manning (D)
99% Haywood (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.7 · 80% CI R+25.7 → R+1.7
Actual result D+24.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.7 (10th pctile) to R+1.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.7
80% CI: R +25.7 → R +1.7 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+24.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DKathy Manning0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLee Haywood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Kathy ManningH8NC13067 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$312.3K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lee HaywoodH0NC06241 ↗
Receipts
$73.9K
Disburse
$58.3K
Cash on hand
$15.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.4K
D side
$2.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PAGE COMMUNICATIONS…
For / against split
For Manning $2.3K
Against Haywood $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PAGE COMMUNICATIONS L.L.C.D$1.6K67%for Kathy Manning
JDCA PACD$50021%for Kathy Manning
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$278.0912%for Kathy Manning
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Kathy Manning

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jul 1
538
Safe D
Nov 2
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks