Races · house · 2020 · North Carolina

house · open seat

North Carolina house

← North Carolina house North Carolina house →

Tilt DD +1.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
60% (D)
40% (R)
Win probability
Democrat60% (D)
Republican40% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.6
80% CIR+10.4 → D+13.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +1.6 · 80% CI R+10.4 → D+13.6
Actual result Deborah Ross +28.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 60% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.4 (10th pctile) to D+13.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.6

80% CI: R +10.4 → D +13.6 · win prob 60%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Deborah Ross +28.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D2

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Jul 1

538

Safe D

Nov 2

Inside Elections

Likely D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks