Races · house · 2020 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Moe Davis vs Madison Cawthorn
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.2 (10th pctile) to R+4.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.2
80% CI: R +28.2 → R +4.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+12.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 37 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet37
Endorsements tracked
Moe Davis0 · 0%
Madison Cawthorn37 · 100%
Total37
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMadison Cawthorn37 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other17
Other · 17
- Club for Growth
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Equality NC
- Equality North Carolina
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indy Week
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- North Carolina's 10th congressional district · orth Carolina's 10th congressional district in 2018
- North Carolina's 11th congressional district · orth Carolina's 11th congressional district in 2018
- Sierra Club
- Susan B. Anthony List
- VoteVets
- VoteVets.org
Elected officials10
Federal 9State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (post-primary)
- Joe Biden · 46th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President
- Mark Walker · U.S. representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district and Vice Chair of the House Republican Conference
- Kirsten Gillibrand · U.S. senator from New York
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Heath Shuler · former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2007–2013)
- Jim Davis · state senator and candidate for NC-11
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district and ranking member of the House Oversight Committee
- Mark Meadows · former U.S. representative for this district (2013–2020)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- AFL-CIO
- Black Economic Alliance
- Giffords PAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Moe Davis · former U.S. Air Force colonel, US Department of Labor Administrative Law Judge, and former chief prosecutor of the Guantanamo military commission
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Replacements, Ltd. · PAC
- Service Employees International Union · Carolina, Service Employees International Union Local 2008
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Brevard College · former U.S. Air Force major and Brevard College professor
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The News and Observer
DMoe Davis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Madison CawthornH0NC11233 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$4.6M
Cash on hand
$105.7K
Debts
$186.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Moe DavisH0NC11175 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$103.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.4M
D side
$1.1M · 21%
R side
$4.3M · 79%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4M | 27% | against Moe Davis |
| PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4M | 26% | for Madison Cawthorn |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.1M | 20% | against Moe Davis |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $771.2K | 14% | against Madison Cawthorn |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $354.5K | 7% | against Madison Cawthorn |
| LIBERTY PAC; THE super pac · boosts R
| R | $229.5K | 4% | for Madison Cawthorn |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $26.3K | 0% | for Madison Cawthorn |
| AMERICA'S CONSTITUTION PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $3.0K | 0% | against Moe Davis |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $163.04 | 0% | for Moe Davis |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R4
Lean R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 7
- 538 · Nov 2
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R538
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements37 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks