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Races · house · 2020 · Minnesota
house · open seat

Tawnja Zahradka vs Tom Emmer

← Minnesota houseMinnesota house →
Safe RR +23.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Zahradka (D)
99% Emmer (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +23.8 · 80% CI R+35.8 → R+11.8
Actual result R+31.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.8 (10th pctile) to R+11.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.8
80% CI: R +35.8 → R +11.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+31.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTom Emmer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTawnja Zahradka0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-22
Tom EmmerH4MN06087 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$448.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tawnja ZahradkaH0MN06150 ↗
Receipts
$54.2K
Disburse
$54.2K
Cash on hand
$28.04
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$10.2K
D side
$628.09 · 6%
R side
$9.6K · 94%
Top spender
LIUNA MINNESOTA & N…
For / against split
For Zahradka $628.09
For Emmer $9.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LIUNA MINNESOTA & NORTH DAKOTA/LABORERS' DISTRICT COUNCIL OF MINNESOTA & NORTH DAKOTAR$9.1K89%for Tom Emmer
MINNESOTA CITIZENS CONCERNED FOR LIFE, INC. FEDERAL PACR$487.315%for Tom Emmer
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$314.053%for Tawnja Zahradka
AFSCME COUNCIL 5D$314.043%for Tawnja Zahradka

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks