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Races · house · 2020 · Minnesota
house · open seat

Ilhan Omar vs Lacy Johnson

← Minnesota houseMinnesota house →
Safe DD +67.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Omar (D)
1% Johnson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +67.7 · 80% CI D+55.6 → D+79.7
Actual result D+38.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+32) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+67.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+55.6 (10th pctile) to D+79.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +67.7
80% CI: D +55.6 → D +79.7 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+38.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DIlhan Omar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLacy Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMichael Moore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Ilhan OmarH8MN05239 ↗
Receipts
$5.8M
Disburse
$5.7M
Cash on hand
$167.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lacy JohnsonH0MN05178 ↗
Receipts
$12.2M
Disburse
$12.1M
Cash on hand
$49.7K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$211.2K
D side
$199.3K · 94%
R side
$11.9K · 6%
Top spender
TAKEACTION MN FEDER…
For / against split
For Omar $199.2K
Against Johnson $115.05
Against Omar $2.9K
For Johnson $9.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TAKEACTION MN FEDERAL FUNDD$140.0K66%for Ilhan Omar
UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PACD$34.3K16%for Ilhan Omar
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$9.0K4%for Ilhan Omar
CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PACR$9.0K4%for Lacy Johnson
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$5.0K2%for Ilhan Omar
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$3.4K2%for Ilhan Omar
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Lacy Johnson

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks