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Races · house · 2020 · Minnesota
house · open seat

Betty McCollum vs Gene Rechtzigel

← Minnesota houseMinnesota house →
Safe DD +49.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McCollum (D)
1% Rechtzigel (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +49.9 · 80% CI D+37.9 → D+61.9
Actual result D+34.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+49.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+37.9 (10th pctile) to D+61.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +49.9
80% CI: D +37.9 → D +61.9 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+34.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBetty McCollum0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGene Rechtzigel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ISusan Sindt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Betty McCollumH0MN04049 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$284.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Gene RechtzigelH6MN04244 ↗
Receipts
$20.1K
Disburse
$20.1K
Cash on hand
$100
Debts
$100
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.8K
D side
$3.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
AMERICAN FEDERATION…
For / against split
For McCollum $3.6K
Against Rechtzigel $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$1.0K27%for Betty McCollum
AFSCME COUNCIL 5D$1.0K27%for Betty McCollum
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$1.0K27%for Betty McCollum
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$566.0415%for Betty McCollum
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF MINNESOTA POLITICAL ACTION FUNDD$132.944%for Betty McCollum

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks