Races · house · 2020 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Minnesota house

← Minnesota house Minnesota house →

Safe DD +17.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% (D)
1% Kistner (R)
Win probability
Democrat99% (D)
Tyler Kistner1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +17.0
80% CID+5.0 → D+29.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +17.0 · 80% CI D+5.0 → D+29.0
Actual result Angie Craig +2.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.0 (10th pctile) to D+29.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +17.0

80% CI: D +5.0 → D +29.0 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Angie Craig +2.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RTyler Kistner0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-31

Tyler KistnerH0MN02134 ↗

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$3.0M

Cash on hand

$34.0K

Debts

$20.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.3M

D side

$1.2M · 87%

R side

$178.6K · 13%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

Against Kistner $1.2M

For Kistner $178.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.1M	85%	against Tyler Kistner
SEND IN THE MARINE PAC	R	$50.0K	4%	for Tyler Kistner
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	R	$50.0K	4%	for Tyler Kistner
INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE	R	$37.6K	3%	for Tyler Kistner
RIGHT NOW USA	R	$27.0K	2%	for Tyler Kistner

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D1

Likely D2

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Oct 20

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-31

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks