Races · house · 2020 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Minnesota house

← Michigan house Minnesota house →

Lean RR +4.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
21% (D)
79% Hagedorn (R)
Win probability
Democrat21% (D)
Jim Hagedorn79% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +4.9
80% CIR+16.9 → D+7.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +4.9 · 80% CI R+16.9 → D+7.1
Actual result R+3.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 79% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.9 (10th pctile) to D+7.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +4.9

80% CI: R +16.9 → D +7.1 · win prob 21%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+3.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RJim Hagedorn0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Jim HagedornH0MN01045 ↗

Receipts

$2.4M

Disburse

$2.3M

Cash on hand

$81.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.1M

D side

$11.0M · 99%

R side

$99.8K · 1%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

Against Hagedorn $11.0M

For Hagedorn $99.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$10.7M	97%	against Jim Hagedorn
DCCC	D	$179.7K	2%	against Jim Hagedorn
RIGHT NOW USA	R	$60.0K	1%	for Jim Hagedorn
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF MINNESOTA POLITICAL ACTION FUND	D	$48.4K	0%	against Jim Hagedorn
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	R	$16.5K	0%	for Jim Hagedorn

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 20

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 28

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks