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Races · house · 2020 · Michigan
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Hillary Scholten vs Peter Meijer

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
TossupR +0.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
47% Scholten (D)
53% Meijer (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +0.4 · 80% CI R+12.4 → D+11.6
Actual result R+6.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 53% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.4 (10th pctile) to D+11.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 53% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.4
80% CI: R +12.4 → D +11.6 · win prob 47%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RPeter Meijer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DHillary Scholten0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Peter MeijerH0MI03308 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$88.2K
Debts
$479.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Hillary ScholtenH0MI03316 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$27.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$24.1M
D side
$14.3M · 59%
R side
$9.8M · 41%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Scholten $133.9K
Against Meijer $14.2M
Against Scholten $8.8M
For Meijer $1.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$11.1M46%against Peter Meijer
NRCCR$5.5M23%against Hillary Scholten
DCCCD$3.1M13%against Peter Meijer
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.3M10%against Hillary Scholten
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$1.3M5%for Peter Meijer
INDEPENDENT LIBERTY PACR$547.3K2%against Hillary Scholten
FOR OUR FUTURED$121.1K1%for Hillary Scholten
PATRIOTS FUNDR$80.0K0%for Peter Meijer
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$10.7K0%for Peter Meijer

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 20
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tossupmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks