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Races · house · 2020 · Michigan
house · open seat

Brenda Lawrence vs Robert Patrick

← Michigan houseMinnesota house →
Safe DD +39.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Lawrence (D)
1% Patrick (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +39.1 · 80% CI D+27.1 → D+51.1
Actual result D+61.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+39.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+27.1 (10th pctile) to D+51.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +39.1
80% CI: D +27.1 → D +51.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+61.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBrenda Lawrence0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRobert Patrick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LLisa Lane Gioia0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IPhilip Kolody0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GClyde Shabazz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Brenda LawrenceH2MI14111 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$792.1K
Cash on hand
$891.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Robert PatrickH0MI14255 ↗
Receipts
$39.7K
Disburse
$42.0K
Cash on hand
$8.9K
Debts
$21.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$464.06
D side
$464.06 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Lawrence $237.03
Against Patrick $227.03
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$454.0698%for Brenda Lawrence
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$102%for Brenda Lawrence

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks