NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Maine
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Jared Golden vs Dale Crafts

← Maine houseMichigan house →
Likely DD +7.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
89% Golden (D)
11% Crafts (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +7.4 · 80% CI R+4.6 → D+19.4
Actual result Jared F. Golden +6.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 89% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.6 (10th pctile) to D+19.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.4
80% CI: R +4.6 → D +19.4 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultJared F. Golden +6.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJared Golden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDale Crafts0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Jared GoldenH8ME02185 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$130.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dale CraftsH0ME02083 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$3.7K
Debts
$17.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.0M
D side
$4.0M · 68%
R side
$1.9M · 32%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Golden $2.6M
Against Crafts $1.5M
Against Golden $1.7M
For Crafts $194.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.7M29%against Jared Golden
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$1.5M25%against Dale Crafts
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.D$1.1M19%for Jared Golden
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$835.3K14%for Jared Golden
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$530.0K9%for Jared Golden
AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDR$159.9K3%for Dale Crafts
CULAC THE PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATIOND$75.1K1%for Jared Golden
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$965.260%for Dale Crafts
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Dale Crafts

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Sep 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks