Races · house · 2020 · Maine
house · open seat
Chellie Pingree vs Jay Allen
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+36.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+24.9 (10th pctile) to D+48.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +36.9
80% CI: D +24.9 → D +48.9 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+24.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 74 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet43
31
Endorsements tracked
Chellie Pingree43 · 58%
Jay Allen31 · 42%
Total74
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChellie Pingree43 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
Elected officials29
Federal 7State 22Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
- Andre Cushing III · former state senator (2012-2018), state Senate assistant majority leader, and state representative (2008-2012)
- Dana Dow · state senator and state Senate minority leader
- Garrett Mason · former state senator (2010-2018) and state Senate majority leader
- Paul Davis · state senator and former state representative (2008-2014), state Senate minority leader (2004-2006), and state senator (1998-2006)
- Kristi Noem · Governor of South Dakota
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator (KY)
- Susan Collins · U.S. senator from Maine
- William Cohen · former U.S. senator (Republican)
- David C. Burns · former state senator (2012-2016)
- Eric Brakey · former state senator and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018
- Gary Plummer · former state senator (2012-2014) and state representative (2004-2012)
- Paul LePage · nnett, press secretary for former governor Paul LePage
- Tom Martin · state representative and former state senator (2010-2012)
- Bernard Ayotte · former state representative (2006-2014)
- Bruce Poliquin · former U.S. representative
- Dale Crafts · former state representative
- Dan Crenshaw · U.S. representative (TX-2)
- David Woodsome · state senator
- Deborah Sanderson · state representative
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- James Hamper · state senator and former state representative (2004-2012)
- Jeff Timberlake · state senator and former state representative (2010-2018)
- Jeffery Gifford · former state representative (2006-2014)
- Jeffrey Pierce · former state representative (2014-2018)
- Matthew Pouliot · state senator and former state representative (2014-2018)
- Richard Cebra · state representative and former Maine Republican Party chair (2012-2013) and state representative (2004-2012)
- Ricky Long · former state representative (2010-2016)
- Scott Cyrway · state senator
Other8
Other · 8
- Club for Growth
- End Citizens United
- FreedomWorks
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Sierra Club
- Susan B. Anthony List · Candidate Fund
- Travis Mills · retired U.S. Army staff sergeant
- VoteVets
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Family Research Council · (FRC) Action
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Bangor Daily News
RJay Allen31 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
Elected officials25
Federal 5State 20Local 0
Elected officials · 25
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
- Andre Cushing III · former state senator (2012-2018), state Senate assistant majority leader, and state representative (2008-2012)
- Dana Dow · state senator and state Senate minority leader
- Garrett Mason · former state senator (2010-2018) and state Senate majority leader
- Paul Davis · state senator and former state representative (2008-2014), state Senate minority leader (2004-2006), and state senator (1998-2006)
- Kristi Noem · Governor of South Dakota
- Paul LePage · former governor of Maine (2011-2019) and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator (KY)
- Susan Collins · U.S. senator from Maine
- David C. Burns · former state senator (2012-2016)
- Gary Plummer · former state senator (2012-2014) and state representative (2004-2012)
- Tom Martin · state representative and former state senator (2010-2012)
- Bernard Ayotte · former state representative (2006-2014)
- Dan Crenshaw · U.S. representative (TX-2)
- David Woodsome · state senator
- Deborah Sanderson · state representative
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- James Hamper · state senator and former state representative (2004-2012)
- Jeff Timberlake · state senator and former state representative (2010-2018)
- Jeffery Gifford · former state representative (2006-2014)
- Jeffrey Pierce · former state representative (2014-2018)
- Matthew Pouliot · state senator and former state representative (2014-2018)
- Richard Cebra · state representative and former Maine Republican Party chair (2012-2013) and state representative (2004-2012)
- Ricky Long · former state representative (2010-2016)
- Scott Cyrway · state senator
Other3
Other · 3
- Club for Growth
- FreedomWorks
- Susan B. Anthony List · Candidate Fund
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Family Research Council · (FRC) Action
- National Federation of Independent Business
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Bangor Daily News
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Chellie PingreeH8ME01120 ↗
Receipts
$499.0K
Disburse
$276.7K
Cash on hand
$446.7K
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jay AllenH0ME01119 ↗
Receipts
$79.6K
Disburse
$69.9K
Cash on hand
$9.7K
Debts
$7.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.1K
D side
$1.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1K | 99% | for Chellie Pingree |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 1% | for Chellie Pingree |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 1
- Inside Elections · Sep 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 30
The Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements74 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks