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Races · house · 2020 · Maine
house · open seat

Chellie Pingree vs Jay Allen

Safe DD +36.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pingree (D)
1% Allen (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +36.9 · 80% CI D+24.9 → D+48.9
Actual result D+24.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+36.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+24.9 (10th pctile) to D+48.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +36.9
80% CI: D +24.9D +48.9 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+24.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 74 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
43Pingree · 58%
Allen · 42%31
DChellie Pingree43 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
Elected officials29
Federal 7State 22Local 0
Other8
Organizations5
Newspapers1
RJay Allen31 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017-2021)
Elected officials25
Federal 5State 20Local 0
Other3
Organizations2
Newspapers1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Chellie PingreeH8ME01120 ↗
Receipts
$499.0K
Disburse
$276.7K
Cash on hand
$446.7K
Debts
$20.0K
No industry data.
No contributor data.
Jay AllenH0ME01119 ↗
Receipts
$79.6K
Disburse
$69.9K
Cash on hand
$9.7K
Debts
$7.0K
No industry data.
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.1K
D side
$1.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Pingree $1.0K
Against Allen $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$1.1K99%for Chellie Pingree
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Chellie Pingree

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Sep 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Sep 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements74 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks