Races · house · 2020 · Massachusetts

house · open seat

Massachusetts house

← Massachusetts house Massachusetts house →

Safe DD +33.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Lynch (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Stephen F. Lynch99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +33.7
80% CID+21.7 → D+45.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +33.7 · 80% CI D+21.7 → D+45.7
Actual result D+62.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+33.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+21.7 (10th pctile) to D+45.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +33.7

80% CI: D +21.7 → D +45.7 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+62.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 35 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

35Lynch · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Stephen F. Lynch35 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total35
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DStephen F. Lynch35 endorsers

Most notable · Charlie Baker · governor of Massachusetts (2015–present)

Other15

Organizations11

Elected officials7

Federal 3State 3Local 1

Newspapers2

IJonathan D. Lott0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-08-28

Stephen F. LynchH2MA09072 ↗

Receipts

$911.2K

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$1.2M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$80.5K

D side

$9.8K · 12%

R side

$70.7K · 88%

Top spender

THE COMMITTEE FOR A…

For / against split

For Lynch $9.8K

Against Lynch $70.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
THE COMMITTEE FOR ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE	R	$70.7K	88%	against Stephen F. Lynch
MASSACHUSETTS NURSES ASSOCIATION	D	$9.8K	12%	for Stephen F. Lynch

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-08-28

Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks