Races · house · 2020 · Massachusetts

house · open seat

Jake Auchincloss vs Julie Hall

← Massachusetts house Massachusetts house →

Safe DD +26.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Auchincloss (D)
1% Hall (R)
Win probability
Jake Auchincloss99% (D)
Julie Hall1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +26.9
80% CID+14.9 → D+39.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +26.9 · 80% CI D+14.9 → D+39.0
Actual result D+21.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+26.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.9 (10th pctile) to D+39.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +26.9

80% CI: D +14.9 → D +39.0 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+21.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 35 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

32Auchincloss · 91%
Hall · 9%3
Endorsements tracked
Jake Auchincloss32 · 91%
Julie Hall3 · 9%
Total35
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJake Auchincloss32 endorsers

Most notable · Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts

Other14

Organizations10

Elected officials6

Federal 3State 2Local 1

Newspapers2

RJulie Hall3 endorsers

Most notable · Charlie Baker · governor of Massachusetts (2015–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Organizations1

Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Jake AuchinclossH0MA04192 ↗

Receipts

$2.9M

Disburse

$2.4M

Cash on hand

$457.8K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Julie HallH0MA04259 ↗

Receipts

$136.6K

Disburse

$134.4K

Cash on hand

$2.2K

Debts

$51.5K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.0M

D side

$1.1M · 56%

R side

$886.7K · 44%

Top spender

EXPERIENCED LEADERS…

For / against split

For Auchincloss $1.1M

Against Hall $115.05

Against Auchincloss $886.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
EXPERIENCED LEADERSHIP MATTERS PAC	D	$1.1M	53%	for Jake Auchincloss
WOMEN VOTE!	R	$886.7K	44%	against Jake Auchincloss
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	D	$24.0K	1%	for Jake Auchincloss
VOTEVETS	D	$18.8K	1%	for Jake Auchincloss
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$115.05	0%	against Julie Hall

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks