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Races · house · 2020 · Kentucky
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Josh Hicks vs Andy Barr

← Kentucky houseLouisiana house →
Likely RR +9.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% Hicks (D)
94% Barr (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.4 · 80% CI R+21.4 → D+2.6
Actual result R+16.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.4 (10th pctile) to D+2.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.4
80% CI: R +21.4 → D +2.6 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAndy Barr0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJosh Hicks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LFrank Harris0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-04
Andy BarrH0KY06104 ↗
Receipts
$4.6M
Disburse
$4.4M
Cash on hand
$354.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$23.3K
Crop production$16.2K
Casinos / gambling$11.0K
Top contributors
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$23.3K
GOLDEN AGE FARM, LLC$16.2K
BALL HOMES$14.0K
KEY INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS$11.2K
JACK BURFORD CHEVROLET INC.$11.2K
Josh HicksH0KY06179 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$704.84
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$548.4K
D side
$532.6K · 97%
R side
$15.8K · 3%
Top spender
VOTEVETS
For / against split
For Hicks $33.3K
Against Barr $499.3K
For Barr $15.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
VOTEVETSD$498.6K91%against Andy Barr
THE PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGND$21.9K4%for Josh Hicks
NEW POWER PACD$10.8K2%for Josh Hicks
FIREFIGHTERS SUPPORT ASSOCIATION PACR$9.2K2%for Andy Barr
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$6.2K1%for Andy Barr
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%against Andy Barr
WORKING AMERICAD$537.710%for Josh Hicks
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$368.810%for Andy Barr

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R2
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks