Races · house · 2020 · Kentucky

house · open seat

John Yarmuth vs Rhonda Palazzo

← Kentucky house Kentucky house →

Safe DD +30.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Yarmuth (D)
1% Palazzo (R)
Win probability
John Yarmuth99% (D)
Rhonda Palazzo1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +30.9
80% CID+18.9 → D+42.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +30.9 · 80% CI D+18.9 → D+42.9
Actual result D+25.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.9 (10th pctile) to D+42.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +30.9

80% CI: D +18.9 → D +42.9 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+25.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Yarmuth · 67%
Palazzo · 33%1
Endorsements tracked
John Yarmuth2 · 67%
Rhonda Palazzo1 · 33%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJohn Yarmuth2 endorsers

Most notable · Charles Booker · state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Other1

RRhonda Palazzo1 endorser

Most notable · Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

John YarmuthH6KY03124 ↗

Receipts

$663.4K

Disburse

$695.3K

Cash on hand

$169.8K

Debts

$132.3K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

MOTLEY RICE LLC$9.8K

21C MUSEUM HOTELS$5.6K

PETERSON MANAGEMENT LLC$5.6K

MCCARTHY STRATEGIC SOLUTIONS LLC$3.7K

BRIGHTSPRING HEALTH SERVICES$3.0K

Rhonda PalazzoH0KY03259 ↗

Receipts

$46.6K

Disburse

$46.1K

Cash on hand

$475.85

Debts

$225

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.3K

D side

$3.3K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

PLANNED PARENTHOOD …

For / against split

For Yarmuth $3.2K

Against Palazzo $115.05

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	D	$2.3K	70%	for John Yarmuth
TOGETHER WE THRIVE	D	$750	23%	for John Yarmuth
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$230.1	7%	for John Yarmuth
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for John Yarmuth

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks