Races · house · 2020 · Kentucky
house · open seat
Hank Linderman vs Brett Guthrie
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.9 (10th pctile) to R+28.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.9
80% CI: R +52.9 → R +28.9 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+44.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet2
1
Endorsements tracked
Hank Linderman2 · 67%
Brett Guthrie1 · 33%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHank Linderman2 endorsers
Most notable · Charles Booker · state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Charles Booker · state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
Other1
Other · 1
- VoteVets
RBrett Guthrie1 endorser
Most notable · Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky
LRobert Lee Perry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILewis Carter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-09-30Brett GuthrieH8KY02031 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$3.0K
Crop production · $3.0K
- Farmer · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PRESIDENT$5.6K
DISH NETWORK$5.6K
GANESH BALASUBRAMANIAN$5.6K
VAVOULIS, WEINER & MCNULTY$5.0K
G&J PEPSI BOTTLING$4.0K
Hank Linderman
Receipts
$93.4K
Disburse
$71.1K
Cash on hand
$31.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$1.4K
Education · $1.4K
- Western Kentucky University · $1.4K
Individuals $1.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CHOC'D$5.6K
PORTLAND INVESTMENT INITIATIVE$5.2K
APOGEE ELECTRONICS$3.1K
THE BAUGHMAN GROUP$2.0K
WESTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY$1.4K
Robert Lee Perry
Receipts
$12.8K
Disburse
$7.8K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
OBJECT SYSTEMS GROUP INC.$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10.0K
D side
$750 · 7%
R side
$9.3K · 93%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $9.3K | 93% | for Brett Guthrie |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts D
| D | $750 | 7% | against Brett Guthrie |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-09-30
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks