NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Kansas
house · open seat

Sharice Davids vs Amanda Adkins

Safe DD +18.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Davids (D)
1% Adkins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +18.5 · 80% CI D+6.5 → D+30.5
Actual result D+10.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.5 (10th pctile) to D+30.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.5
80% CI: D +6.5D +30.5 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+10.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 48 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
9Davids · 19%
Adkins · 81%39
RAmanda Adkins39 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials20
Federal 10State 8Local 2
Other11
Organizations7
Newspapers1
DSharice Davids9 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Other4
Organizations3
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Amanda AdkinsH0KS03236 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$42.7K
Debts
$5.0K
No industry data.
ECCO SELECT$32.0K
TIFEC, LLC$22.4K
COMMUNITY VOLUNTEER$21.3K
HERZOG COMPANIES$19.6K
KIEWIT$17.8K
Sharice DavidsH8KS03155 ↗
Receipts
$5.8M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$479.2K
Debts
$0
Lawyers / law firms$15.7K
Securities & investment$8.4K
Education$7.1K
Commercial banks$7.0K
DENTONS US LLP$15.7K
JOHNSON COUNTY PARK AND RECREATION DIS$8.5K
SERVICE MANAGEMENT GROUP$8.4K
BAIN CAPITAL$8.4K
INDEPENDENT MAG$7.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.7M
D side
$894.3K · 53%
R side
$801.3K · 47%
Top spender
HEARTLAND USA PAC
For / against split
For Davids $300.8K
Against Adkins $593.5K
Against Davids $20.0K
For Adkins $781.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HEARTLAND USA PACR$765.0K45%for Amanda Adkins
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$593.4K35%against Amanda Adkins
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$299.9K18%for Sharice Davids
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$20.0K1%against Sharice Davids
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$6.2K0%for Amanda Adkins
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$5.1K0%for Amanda Adkins
KANSANS FOR LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$5.0K0%for Amanda Adkins
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%for Sharice Davids
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%for Sharice Davids

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 20
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Oct 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks