Races · house · 2020 · Kansas
house · open seat
Michelle De La Isla vs Jake LaTurner
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.0 (10th pctile) to R+4.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.0
80% CI: R +28.0 → R +4.0 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+14.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRJake LaTurner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMichelle De La Isla0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31Jake LaTurnerH0KS02188 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$14.9K
Debts
$62.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michelle De La IslaH0KS02196 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$14.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$17.5K
Education · $17.5K
- University of Kansas · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$6.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.5K
- Irigonegaray Turney & Revenaugh LLP · $6.5K
Individuals $6.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS$17.5K
MIRRAM GROUP$9.4K
IRIGONEGARAY TURNEY & REVENAUGH LLP$6.5K
WATERMARK ESTATE MANAGEMENT SERVICES L$6.3K
CHIEF CREATIVE OFFICER$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.4M
D side
$330.9K · 23%
R side
$1.1M · 77%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION) super pac · boosts R
| R | $922.1K | 65% | for Jake LaTurner |
| THE HEARTLAND PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $285.2K | 20% | against Jake LaTurner |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $98.2K | 7% | against Michelle De La Isla |
| FIGHTING FOR KANSAS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.6K | 4% | for Jake LaTurner |
| LATINO VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $45.3K | 3% | for Michelle De La Isla |
| KANSANS FOR LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $5.2K | 0% | for Jake LaTurner |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.4K | 0% | for Jake LaTurner |
| EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND) super pac · boosts D
| D | $151.64 | 0% | for Michelle De La Isla |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
The Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks