Races · house · 2020 · Kansas
house · open seat
Kali Barnett vs Tracey Mann
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.3 (10th pctile) to R+25.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.3
80% CI: R +49.3 → R +25.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+42.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 48 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet9
39
Endorsements tracked
Kali Barnett9 · 19%
Tracey Mann39 · 81%
Total48
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTracey Mann39 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials20
Federal 10State 8Local 2
Elected officials · 20
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · president of the United States
- Mike Pence · vice president of the United States
- Jene Vickrey · state representative and former state House majority leader and speaker pro tempore
- Jeb Bush · former governor of Florida (1999–2007)
- governor of Kansas · mer speechwriter for former governor of Kansas Kathleen Sebelius
- Bob Dole · former U.S. senator (R-KS) and 1996 Republican presidential nominee
- Roy Blunt · U.S. senator from Missouri and former U.S. representative (MO-07) (1997–2011) and Missouri secretary of state (1985–1993)
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Mike Pompeo · o, wife of Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State and former CIA director (2017–2018) and U.S. representative (R-KS-04) (2011–2017)
- Jeff Colyer · former governor (2018–2019) and lieutenant governor (2011–2018)
- Pete Buttigieg · former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020) and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Steve Fitzgerald · former state senator (2013–2018) and 2014 and 2018 Republican candidate in KS-02
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers · U.S. representative (WA-05)
- Kevin Jones · former state representative (2013–2019)
- Lynn Jenkins · former U.S. representative (KS-02) (2009–2019) and Kansas State Treasurer (2003–2008)
- Michelle De La Isla · mayor of Topeka
- Sam Graves · U.S. representative (MO-06)
- Todd Tiahrt · 2014 and 2017 Republican candidate in KS-04, former U.S. representative (R-KS-04) (1995–2011), and Republican candidate in 2010 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
- Tom Osborne · former U.S. representative (NE-03) (2001–2007)
Other11
Other · 11
- Americans for Prosperity · (AFP) Action
- Associated General Contractors of America
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Sierra Club
- University of Kansas · raduate teaching assistant at the University of Kansas
- Walmart · Williams, local Walmart manager
- With Honor
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · Bold PAC
- Family Policy Alliance of Kansas
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Association for Gun Rights
- National Right to Life Committee
- PODER PAC
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Kansas City Star
DKali Barnett9 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Other4
Other · 4
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Let America Vote
- Sierra Club
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · Bold PAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- PODER PAC
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Pete Buttigieg · former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020) and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31Tracey MannH0KS01123 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$276.2K
Debts
$197.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
THE ONYX COLLECTION$11.2K
VENTURE CORPORATION$11.2K
HARSHMAN CONSTRUCTION, LLC$10.0K
MORRISON VENTURES$9.4K
HY-PLAINS FEEDYARD, LLC$8.4K
Kali BarnettH0KS01172 ↗
Receipts
$606.9K
Disburse
$596.8K
Cash on hand
$10.1K
Debts
$25.0K
Top industries
Computers / electronics$5.6K
Computers / electronics · $5.6K
- Cisco Systems · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Education$5.6K
Education · $5.6K
- The Engineering Center Education Trust · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CIVICPLUS$13.8K
GRANT ENGINEERING$12.1K
HAYSMED$11.2K
GRANT$6.8K
THE ADLER GROUP$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$688.1K
D side
$210.9K · 31%
R side
$477.2K · 69%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION) super pac · boosts R
| R | $399.9K | 58% | for Tracey Mann |
| CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $210.9K | 31% | against Tracey Mann |
| AMERICAN VALUES FIRST super pac · boosts R
| R | $67.2K | 10% | for Tracey Mann |
| KANSANS FOR LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $5.3K | 1% | for Tracey Mann |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.4K | 1% | for Tracey Mann |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Kali Barnett |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks