Races · house · 2020 · Indiana
house · open seat
Thomasina Marsili vs Larry Bucshon
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.8 (10th pctile) to R+25.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.8
80% CI: R +49.8 → R +25.8 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+37.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 160 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet75
85
Endorsements tracked
Thomasina Marsili75 · 47%
Larry Bucshon85 · 53%
Total160
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RLarry Bucshon85 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials37
Federal 12State 20Local 4
Elected officials · 37
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (since 2017)
- Joe Biden · Vice President of the United States (2009 to 2017), Senator from Delaware (1973 to 2009) and Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States (2020)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States
- Pete Buttigieg · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 to 2020) and Democratic Party candidate for President of the United States (2020)
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Mark Kruzan · former Majority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives and former mayor of Bloomington
- Steve Scalise · House Minority Whip and U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 1st congressional district
- John R. Gregg · former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Indiana in 2012 and 2016
- Christina Hale · former state representative and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Indiana in 2016
- Cynthia Nixon · actress, activist and Democratic Party candidate for Governor of New York (2018)
- Andy Zay · state senator from Indiana's 17th district
- Brian Buchanan · state senator from Indiana's 7th district
- Chip Perfect · state senator from Indiana's 43rd district
- Eric Bassler · state senator from Indiana's 39th district
- Jeff Raatz · state senator from Indiana's 27th district
- Jim Buck · state senator from Indiana's 21st district
- Joe Donnelly · Senator from Indiana (2013 to 2019) and Representative from Indiana (2007 to 2013)
- Liz Brown · state senator from Indiana's 15th district
- Mark Messmer · state senator from Indiana's 48th district
- Mike Braun · U.S. senator from Indiana
- Phil Boots · state senator from Indiana's 23rd district
- Ron Alting · state senator from Indiana's 22nd district
- Allan Kauffman · Mayor of Goshen, Indiana (1986 to 2015)
- Baron Hill · former U.S. representative from Indiana's 9th congressional district
- Carey Hamilton · state representative
- Chuck Goodrich · state representative from Indiana's 29th district
- Dan Burton · former U.S. representative (IN-05, IN-06) (1983–2013)
- David Wolkins · state representative from Indiana's 18th district
- James Mueller · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (since 2020)
- Matt Pierce · state representative
- Mike Karickhoff · state representative from Indiana's 30th district
- Seth Moulton · U.S. representative (MA-06)
- Steve Luecke · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (1997 to 2012)
- Susan Brooks · U.S. representative from Indiana's 5th congressional district
- Terry Goodin · state representative
- Tony Cook · state representative from Indiana's 32nd district
Other27
Other · 27
- AFSCME · a-Kentucky AFSCME
- Bloomington · former Bloomington city councilman
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen
- Club for Growth
- Complete video of debate · September 22, 2020
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indiana's 2nd congressional district · for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in 2018
- Indiana's 5th congressional district · nd nominee for Indiana's 5th congressional district in 2018
- Indiana's 9th congressional district · candidate for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
- Jennifer McCormick · Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction ( Republican )
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- LPAC
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- Marion County · r., Marion County deputy prosecutor and son of Andrew Jacobs Jr.
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Our Revolution · Southern Indiana
- Right to Life · Indiana
- SMART
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United Steelworkers · Local 12,775
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Association for Justice · PAC
- BOLD PAC
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Equality PAC
- Indiana · State AFL-CIO
- Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio Regional Council of Carpenters
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 364
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 150
- League of Conservation Voters
- Liz Watson · Executive Director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and nominee for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- National Education Association
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Tea Party Express
- United Association · Local 172
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 700
DThomasina Marsili75 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials33
Federal 10State 18Local 4
Elected officials · 33
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (since 2017)
- Joe Biden · Vice President of the United States (2009 to 2017), Senator from Delaware (1973 to 2009) and Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States (2020)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States
- Pete Buttigieg · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 to 2020) and Democratic Party candidate for President of the United States (2020)
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Mark Kruzan · former Majority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives and former mayor of Bloomington
- Steve Scalise · House Minority Whip and U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 1st congressional district
- John R. Gregg · former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Indiana in 2012 and 2016
- Cynthia Nixon · actress, activist and Democratic Party candidate for Governor of New York (2018)
- Andy Zay · state senator from Indiana's 17th district
- Brian Buchanan · state senator from Indiana's 7th district
- Chip Perfect · state senator from Indiana's 43rd district
- Eric Bassler · state senator from Indiana's 39th district
- Jeff Raatz · state senator from Indiana's 27th district
- Jim Buck · state senator from Indiana's 21st district
- Joe Donnelly · Senator from Indiana (2013 to 2019) and Representative from Indiana (2007 to 2013)
- Liz Brown · state senator from Indiana's 15th district
- Mark Messmer · state senator from Indiana's 48th district
- Phil Boots · state senator from Indiana's 23rd district
- Ron Alting · state senator from Indiana's 22nd district
- Allan Kauffman · Mayor of Goshen, Indiana (1986 to 2015)
- Baron Hill · former U.S. representative from Indiana's 9th congressional district
- Chuck Goodrich · state representative from Indiana's 29th district
- David Wolkins · state representative from Indiana's 18th district
- James Mueller · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (since 2020)
- Matt Pierce · state representative
- Mike Karickhoff · state representative from Indiana's 30th district
- Seth Moulton · U.S. representative (MA-06)
- Steve Luecke · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (1997 to 2012)
- Susan Brooks · U.S. representative from Indiana's 5th congressional district
- Terry Goodin · state representative
- Tony Cook · state representative from Indiana's 32nd district
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Association for Justice · PAC
- BOLD PAC
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Equality PAC
- Indiana · State AFL-CIO
- Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio Regional Council of Carpenters
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 364
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 150
- League of Conservation Voters
- Liz Watson · Executive Director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and nominee for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- National Education Association
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Tea Party Express
- United Association · Local 172
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 700
Other21
Other · 21
- AFSCME · a-Kentucky AFSCME
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen
- Complete video of debate · September 22, 2020
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indiana's 9th congressional district · candidate for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- Indivisible movement
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
- Jennifer McCormick · Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction ( Republican )
- LPAC
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Our Revolution · Southern Indiana
- Right to Life · Indiana
- SMART
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United Steelworkers · Local 12,775
LJames D. Rodenberger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-18Larry BucshonH0IN08114 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$206.9K
Debts
$1.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Thomasina MarsiliH0IN08213 ↗
Receipts
$68.7K
Disburse
$68.5K
Cash on hand
$254.43
Debts
$0
Top industries
Pharma / health products$1.0K
Pharma / health products · $1.0K
- Myers Ventures LLC · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Crop production$500
Crop production · $500
- Veterans Administration · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Govt employees$500
Govt employees · $500
- State of Indiana · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Education$350
Education · $350
- Vincennes University · $350
Individuals $350 · PACs $0
Top contributors
CENTERPOINT ENERGY$2.8K
HUF NORTH AMERICA$2.0K
MYERS VENTURES LLC$1.0K
TOWN OF SPENCER$900
KIGHT HOME CENTER$750
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.7K
D side
$3.9K · 31%
R side
$8.8K · 69%
Top spender
COMMUNITY HEALTH CO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMUNITY HEALTH COUNCIL PAC DBA BREAST CANCER HEALTH COUNCIL PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.0K | 63% | for Larry Bucshon |
| INDIVISIBLE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.9K | 31% | for Thomasina Marsili |
| INDIANA REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE, INC. party · boosts R
| R | $791.5 | 6% | for Larry Bucshon |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-18
Endorsements160 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks