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Races · house · 2020 · Indiana
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Christina Hale vs WPA Intelligence

← Indiana houseIndiana house →
Safe RR +15.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hale (D)
99% Intelligence (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +15.5 · 80% CI R+27.5 → R+3.5
Actual result R+4.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.5 (10th pctile) to R+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.5
80% CI: R +27.5 → R +3.5 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RWPA Intelligence0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DChristina Hale0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Christina HaleH0IN05219 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$4.0M
Cash on hand
$11.5K
Debts
$2.5K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$59.4K
Education$26.7K
Pharma / health products$13.7K
Top contributors
ICE MILLER LLP$24.8K
BARNES & THORNBURG LLP$22.6K
INDIANA UNIVERSITY$19.1K
NOT-EMPLOYED$16.9K
ELI LILLY & CO$13.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$32.4M
D side
$19.5M · 60%
R side
$12.9M · 40%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Hale $97.3K
Against Spartz $19.4M
Against Hale $11.1M
For Spartz $1.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$4.5M14%against Christina Hale
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$3.1M9%against Christina Hale
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.8M9%against Christina Hale
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$665.2K2%against Christina Hale
LATINO VICTORY FUNDD$61.0K0%for Christina Hale

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Aug 20
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks